Black Stars 0–2 Onze Créateurs: Result & Stats

Black Stars

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Onze Créateurs

12/16/2023

Première Division · Round 9Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Black Stars31%

×Draw31%

Onze Créateurs38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black StarsExpected goals in this matchOnze Créateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.05

Black Stars

0.93

Onze Créateurs

1.05

Onze Créateurs creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 97 away

1.00

creates per match

0.96

1.14

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Black Stars

1.00

Onze Créateurs

0.96

allows per match

Black Stars

1.14

Onze Créateurs

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Onze Créateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw

62%

Black Stars or Onze Créateurs

69%

Draw or Onze Créateurs

69%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+

11%

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals

61%

Black Stars 2+ goals

24%

Black Stars 3+ goals

7%

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals

65%

Onze Créateurs 2+ goals

28%

Onze Créateurs 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)

45%

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.00 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + Black Stars defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Black Stars scores more

31%

level

31%

Onze Créateurs scores more

38%

Onze Créateurs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff