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Black Stars vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
0 – 1
Köniz
Köniz
10/17/20201. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 11Sportplatz Buschweilerhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Black Stars52%
×Draw21%
Köniz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
2.10
Köniz
1.46

Black Stars creates 44% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Black Stars
1.34
Köniz
1.20

allows per match

Black Stars
1.71
Köniz
2.85

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
73%
Black Stars or Köniz
79%
Draw or Köniz
48%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
31%
Köniz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
88%
Black Stars 2+ goals
62%
Black Stars 3+ goals
35%
Köniz 1+ goals
77%
Köniz 2+ goals
43%
Köniz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
66%
Köniz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.34 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.10

Köniz attack 1.20 + Black Stars defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Black Stars scores more
52%
level
21%
Köniz scores more
27%

Black Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Black Stars 0–1 Köniz

Köniz beat Black Stars 1-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Buschweilerhof in Basel.