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Black Stars vs FC Winterthur — Schweizer Cup 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthuradvanced
11/1/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Round of 16Sportplatz Buschweilerhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Black Stars19%
×Draw17%
FC Winterthur64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
1.56
FC Winterthur
2.88

FC Winterthur creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Black Stars
2.00
FC Winterthur
2.76

allows per match

Black Stars
3.00
FC Winterthur
1.12

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
36%
Black Stars or FC Winterthur
83%
Draw or FC Winterthur
81%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
8%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
79%
Black Stars 2+ goals
46%
Black Stars 3+ goals
21%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
94%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
78%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
23%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 2.00 + FC Winterthur defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Winterthur attack 2.76 + Black Stars defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Black Stars scores more
19%
level
17%
FC Winterthur scores more
64%

FC Winterthur at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Stars vs FC Winterthur

FC Winterthur beat Black Stars 6-2 in Schweizer Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Buschweilerhof in Basel.