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Black Stars vs Bougouni — Première Division 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
2 – 0
Bougouni
Bougouni
8/23/2020Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 22Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Black Stars47%
×Draw29%
Bougouni25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
1.29
Bougouni
0.85

Black Stars creates 52% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 76 away

creates per match

Black Stars
1.00
Bougouni
0.57

allows per match

Black Stars
1.14
Bougouni
1.58

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
Bougouni+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Bougouni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
75%
Black Stars or Bougouni
71%
Draw or Bougouni
53%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
22%
Bougouni wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
72%
Black Stars 2+ goals
37%
Black Stars 3+ goals
14%
Bougouni 1+ goals
57%
Bougouni 2+ goals
21%
Bougouni 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
66%
Bougouni (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Bougouni away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.00 + Bougouni defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bougouni attack 0.57 + Black Stars defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Black Stars scores more
47%
level
29%
Bougouni scores more
25%

Black Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Black Stars 2–0 Bougouni

Black Stars beat Bougouni 2-0 in Première Division on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.