Black Stars 1–1 Binga: Result & Stats

Black Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Binga

5/24/2023

Première Division · Round 19Stade Omnisports de Bougouni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Black Stars31%

×Draw31%

Binga38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black StarsExpected goals in this matchBinga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.08

Black Stars

0.94

Binga

1.08

Binga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 56 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

1.14

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Black Stars

1.00

Binga

1.02

allows per match

Black Stars

1.14

Binga

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par

Binga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Binga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw

62%

Black Stars or Binga

69%

Draw or Binga

69%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+

11%

Binga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals

61%

Black Stars 2+ goals

24%

Black Stars 3+ goals

7%

Binga 1+ goals

66%

Binga 2+ goals

29%

Binga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)

45%

Binga (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Binga away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.00 + Binga defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Binga attack 1.02 + Black Stars defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Black Stars scores more

31%

level

31%

Binga scores more

38%

Binga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Binga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff