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Black Rock vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

Black Rock
Black Rock
FT
1 – 2
New York RB III
New York RB IIIadvanced
7/20/2018USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Semi-finalsJohn Gurski Stadium (West Lawn, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Black Rock33%
×Draw28%
New York RB III39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Rock
1.11
New York RB III
1.23

New York RB III creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

creates per match

Black Rock
1.15
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

Black Rock
1.38
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

Black Rock+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Rock ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Black Rock or draw
61%
Black Rock or New York RB III
72%
Draw or New York RB III
67%

Winning margin

Black Rock wins by 2+
13%
New York RB III wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Black Rock 1+ goals
67%
Black Rock 2+ goals
30%
Black Rock 3+ goals
10%
New York RB III 1+ goals
71%
New York RB III 2+ goals
35%
New York RB III 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Black Rock (draw refunded)
46%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Rock at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Rock attack 1.15 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

New York RB III attack 1.07 + Black Rock defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Rock scores more
33%
level
28%
New York RB III scores more
39%

New York RB III at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Rock vs New York RB III

New York RB III beat Black Rock 2-1 in USL League Two on July 20, 2018.

The match was played at John Gurski Stadium (West Lawn, Pennsylvania).