Black Rhinos 1–0 Harare City: Result & Stats

Black Rhinos

FT

1 – 0

Harare City

9/1/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 22Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Black Rhinos42%

×Draw31%

Harare City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black RhinosExpected goals in this matchHarare City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.83

Black Rhinos

1.12

Harare City

0.83

Black Rhinos creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.06

creates per match

0.79

0.88

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Black Rhinos

1.06

Harare City

0.79

allows per match

Black Rhinos

0.88

Harare City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Rhinos ↓

Harare City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Black Rhinos or draw

73%

Black Rhinos or Harare City

69%

Draw or Harare City

58%

Winning margin

Black Rhinos wins by 2+

18%

Harare City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Black Rhinos 1+ goals

67%

Black Rhinos 2+ goals

31%

Black Rhinos 3+ goals

10%

Harare City 1+ goals

56%

Harare City 2+ goals

20%

Harare City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)

61%

Harare City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Rhinos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Rhinos attack 1.06 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Harare City attack 0.79 + Black Rhinos defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Black Rhinos scores more

42%

level

31%

Harare City scores more

27%

Black Rhinos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Black Rhinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff