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Black Rhinos vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
8/5/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 18Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Black Rhinos45%
×Draw30%
Cranborne Bullets24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Rhinos
1.19
Cranborne Bullets
0.79

Black Rhinos creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Black Rhinos
1.06
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Black Rhinos
0.88
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Black Rhinos+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Rhinos ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Black Rhinos or draw
76%
Black Rhinos or Cranborne Bullets
70%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
55%

Winning margin

Black Rhinos wins by 2+
20%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Black Rhinos 1+ goals
70%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
33%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
12%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
55%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
19%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
65%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Rhinos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Rhinos attack 1.06 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Black Rhinos defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Black Rhinos scores more
45%
level
30%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
24%

Black Rhinos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Black Rhinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Rhinos vs Cranborne Bullets

Cranborne Bullets beat Black Rhinos 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Bata Stadium in Gweru.