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Black Rhinos vs Chapungu United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
FT
1 – 2
Chapungu United
Chapungu United
8/17/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Black Rhinos39%
×Draw34%
Chapungu United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Rhinos
0.94
Chapungu United
0.71

Black Rhinos creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Black Rhinos
1.06
Chapungu United
0.53

allows per match

Black Rhinos
0.88
Chapungu United
0.82

finishing

Black Rhinos+0.00on par
Chapungu United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Rhinos ↓

Chapungu United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Black Rhinos or draw
74%
Black Rhinos or Chapungu United
66%
Draw or Chapungu United
61%

Winning margin

Black Rhinos wins by 2+
15%
Chapungu United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Black Rhinos 1+ goals
61%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
24%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
7%
Chapungu United 1+ goals
51%
Chapungu United 2+ goals
16%
Chapungu United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
60%
Chapungu United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Rhinos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Chapungu United away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Rhinos attack 1.06 + Chapungu United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Chapungu United attack 0.53 + Black Rhinos defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Rhinos scores more
39%
level
34%
Chapungu United scores more
26%

Black Rhinos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Black Rhinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Rhinos vs Chapungu United

Chapungu United beat Black Rhinos 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.