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Black Man Warrior vs Shaita — LFA First Division 2020

Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shaita
Shaita
12/8/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 1TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Black Man Warrior41%
×Draw24%
Shaita35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Man Warrior
1.58
Shaita
1.43

Black Man Warrior creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Black Man Warrior
1.08
Shaita
1.62

allows per match

Black Man Warrior
1.23
Shaita
2.08

finishing

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par
Shaita+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Man Warrior ↓

Shaita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Black Man Warrior or draw
65%
Black Man Warrior or Shaita
76%
Draw or Shaita
59%

Winning margin

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
21%
Shaita wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
79%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
47%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
21%
Shaita 1+ goals
76%
Shaita 2+ goals
42%
Shaita 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
54%
Shaita (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Man Warrior at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Shaita away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Man Warrior attack 1.08 + Shaita defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shaita attack 1.62 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Black Man Warrior scores more
41%
level
24%
Shaita scores more
35%

Black Man Warrior at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Black Man Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Black Man Warrior 0–1 Shaita

Shaita beat Black Man Warrior 1-0 in LFA First Division on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.