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Black Man Warrior vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
3/11/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 22TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Black Man Warrior45%
×Draw27%
Invincible Eleven28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Man Warrior
1.42
Invincible Eleven
1.06

Black Man Warrior creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 51 away

creates per match

Black Man Warrior
1.08
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Black Man Warrior
1.23
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Man Warrior ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Black Man Warrior or draw
72%
Black Man Warrior or Invincible Eleven
73%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
55%

Winning margin

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
22%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
76%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
41%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
17%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
65%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
29%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
62%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Man Warrior at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Man Warrior attack 1.08 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Black Man Warrior scores more
45%
level
27%
Invincible Eleven scores more
28%

Black Man Warrior at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Black Man Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Black Man Warrior 0–0 Invincible Eleven

Black Man Warrior and Invincible Eleven drew 0-0 in LFA First Division on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.