Black Man Warrior 2–3 Discoveries: Result & Stats

Black Man Warrior

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Discoveries

10/16/2024

LFA First Division · Round 4D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Black Man Warrior30%

×Draw26%

Discoveries43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black Man WarriorExpected goals in this matchDiscoveries

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.43

Black Man Warrior

1.15

Discoveries

1.43

Discoveries creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

1.08

creates per match

1.63

1.23

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Black Man Warrior

1.08

Discoveries

1.63

allows per match

Black Man Warrior

1.23

Discoveries

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Discoveries+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Man Warrior ↓

Discoveries →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Black Man Warrior or draw

57%

Black Man Warrior or Discoveries

74%

Draw or Discoveries

70%

Winning margin

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+

12%

Discoveries wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals

68%

Black Man Warrior 2+ goals

32%

Black Man Warrior 3+ goals

11%

Discoveries 1+ goals

76%

Discoveries 2+ goals

42%

Discoveries 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)

41%

Discoveries (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Man Warrior at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Discoveries away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Man Warrior attack 1.08 + Discoveries defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Discoveries attack 1.63 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Black Man Warrior scores more

30%

level

26%

Discoveries scores more

43%

Discoveries at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Discoveries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff