Black Leopards 2–0 Supersport United

Black Leopards

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Supersport United

1/12/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 13Thohoyandou Stadium (Thohoyandou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Black Leopards35%

×Draw30%

Supersport United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black LeopardsExpected goals in this matchSupersport United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

Black Leopards

1.06

Supersport United

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 104 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

1.15

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Black Leopards

1.00

Supersport United

0.97

allows per match

Black Leopards

1.15

Supersport United

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par

Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Supersport United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw

65%

Black Leopards or Supersport United

70%

Draw or Supersport United

65%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+

14%

Supersport United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals

65%

Black Leopards 2+ goals

29%

Black Leopards 3+ goals

9%

Supersport United 1+ goals

65%

Supersport United 2+ goals

29%

Supersport United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)

50%

Supersport United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Supersport United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Supersport United attack 0.97 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Black Leopards scores more

35%

level

30%

Supersport United scores more

35%

Black Leopards at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Black Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff