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Black Leopards vs Maritzburg Utd — Premier Soccer League 2018

Black Leopards
Black Leopards
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
11/21/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Thohoyandou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Black Leopards39%
×Draw31%
Maritzburg Utd30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Leopards
1.08
Maritzburg Utd
0.90

Black Leopards creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

creates per match

Black Leopards
1.00
Maritzburg Utd
0.64

allows per match

Black Leopards
1.15
Maritzburg Utd
1.16

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par
Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Maritzburg Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw
70%
Black Leopards or Maritzburg Utd
69%
Draw or Maritzburg Utd
61%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+
16%
Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals
66%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
29%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
10%
Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
59%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
23%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)
57%
Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Leopards scores more
39%
level
31%
Maritzburg Utd scores more
30%

Black Leopards at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Black Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Leopards vs Maritzburg Utd

Black Leopards beat Maritzburg Utd 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Thohoyandou Stadium in Thohoyandou.