Black Leopards 0–0 Highlands Park FC

Black Leopards

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Highlands Park FC

2/24/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 17Thohoyandou Stadium (Thohoyandou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Black Leopards38%

×Draw30%

Highlands Park FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black LeopardsExpected goals in this matchHighlands Park FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.99

Black Leopards

1.10

Highlands Park FC

0.99

Black Leopards creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

1.15

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Black Leopards

1.00

Highlands Park FC

0.83

allows per match

Black Leopards

1.15

Highlands Park FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Highlands Park FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw

68%

Black Leopards or Highlands Park FC

70%

Draw or Highlands Park FC

62%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+

15%

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals

67%

Black Leopards 2+ goals

30%

Black Leopards 3+ goals

10%

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals

63%

Highlands Park FC 2+ goals

26%

Highlands Park FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)

54%

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Black Leopards scores more

38%

level

30%

Highlands Park FC scores more

32%

Black Leopards at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Black Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff