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Black Leopards vs Golden Arrows — Premier Soccer League 2018

Black Leopards
Black Leopards
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Golden Arrows
Golden Arrows
1/19/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Thohoyandou Stadium (Thohoyandou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Black Leopards39%
×Draw29%
Golden Arrows32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Leopards
1.19
Golden Arrows
1.06

Black Leopards creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 120 away

creates per match

Black Leopards
1.00
Golden Arrows
0.98

allows per match

Black Leopards
1.15
Golden Arrows
1.39

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par
Golden Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Golden Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw
68%
Black Leopards or Golden Arrows
71%
Draw or Golden Arrows
61%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+
17%
Golden Arrows wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals
70%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
33%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
12%
Golden Arrows 1+ goals
65%
Golden Arrows 2+ goals
29%
Golden Arrows 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)
55%
Golden Arrows (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Golden Arrows away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Golden Arrows defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Golden Arrows attack 0.98 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Leopards scores more
39%
level
29%
Golden Arrows scores more
32%

Black Leopards at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Black Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Black Leopards 1–1 Golden Arrows

Black Leopards and Golden Arrows drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on January 19, 2019.

The match was played at Thohoyandou Stadium (Thohoyandou).