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Black Leopards vs Amazulu — Premier Soccer League 2018

Black Leopards
Black Leopards
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Amazulu
Amazulu
12/15/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Thohoyandou Stadium (Thohoyandou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Black Leopards37%
×Draw30%
Amazulu33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Leopards
1.08
Amazulu
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 119 away

creates per match

Black Leopards
1.00
Amazulu
0.84

allows per match

Black Leopards
1.15
Amazulu
1.16

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par
Amazulu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Amazulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw
67%
Black Leopards or Amazulu
70%
Draw or Amazulu
63%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+
15%
Amazulu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals
66%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
29%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
10%
Amazulu 1+ goals
63%
Amazulu 2+ goals
26%
Amazulu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)
53%
Amazulu (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Amazulu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Amazulu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Amazulu attack 0.84 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Black Leopards scores more
37%
level
30%
Amazulu scores more
33%

Black Leopards at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Black Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Leopards vs Amazulu

Black Leopards beat Amazulu 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 15, 2018.

The match was played at Thohoyandou Stadium (Thohoyandou).