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Amazulu vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
11/4/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Jonsson Kings Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Amazulu50%
×Draw27%
Black Leopards23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
1.45
Black Leopards
0.88

Amazulu creates 65% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 47 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Amazulu
0.89
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
77%
Amazulu or Black Leopards
73%
Draw or Black Leopards
50%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
25%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
77%
Amazulu 2+ goals
42%
Amazulu 3+ goals
18%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
59%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
22%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
69%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Amazulu scores more
50%
level
27%
Black Leopards scores more
23%

Amazulu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amazulu vs Black Leopards

Amazulu beat Black Leopards 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Jonsson Kings Park Stadium in Durban, KN.