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BKV Előre vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

BKV Előre
BKV Előre
FT
3 – 0
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
8/1/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 1BKV Előre Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

BKV Előre59%
×Draw22%
Salgótarjáni BTC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKV Előre
1.87
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.96

BKV Előre creates 95% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 49 away

creates per match

BKV Előre
1.82
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

BKV Előre
1.05
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

BKV Előre+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKV Előre ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BKV Előre or draw
81%
BKV Előre or Salgótarjáni BTC
78%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
41%

Winning margin

BKV Előre wins by 2+
34%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BKV Előre 1+ goals
85%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
56%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
29%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
62%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
25%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BKV Előre (draw refunded)
75%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKV Előre at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKV Előre attack 1.82 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.87

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + BKV Előre defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

BKV Előre scores more
59%
level
22%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
19%

BKV Előre at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: BKV Előre 3–0 Salgótarjáni BTC

BKV Előre beat Salgótarjáni BTC 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at BKV Előre Stadion in Budapest.