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BKV Előre vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Southeast 2023

BKV Előre
BKV Előre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
8/13/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 3BKV Előre Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

BKV Előre43%
×Draw25%
Kecskeméti TE II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKV Előre
1.57
Kecskeméti TE II
1.34

BKV Előre creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

BKV Előre
1.51
Kecskeméti TE II
1.10

allows per match

BKV Előre
1.58
Kecskeméti TE II
1.63

finishing

BKV Előre+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKV Előre ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

BKV Előre or draw
67%
BKV Előre or Kecskeméti TE II
75%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
57%

Winning margin

BKV Előre wins by 2+
21%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

BKV Előre 1+ goals
79%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
46%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
21%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
74%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
39%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BKV Előre (draw refunded)
57%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKV Előre at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKV Előre attack 1.51 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BKV Előre scores more
43%
level
25%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
33%

BKV Előre at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKV Előre vs Kecskeméti TE II

BKV Előre beat Kecskeméti TE II 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at BKV Előre Stadion in Budapest.