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BKMA vs Shirak — Premier League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shirak
Shirak
8/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Football Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

BKMA41%
×Draw25%
Shirak33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
1.48
Shirak
1.30

BKMA creates 14% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 91 away

creates per match

BKMA
1.09
Shirak
0.90

allows per match

BKMA
1.70
Shirak
1.88

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Shirak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Shirak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
67%
BKMA or Shirak
75%
Draw or Shirak
59%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
20%
Shirak wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
77%
BKMA 2+ goals
43%
BKMA 3+ goals
19%
Shirak 1+ goals
73%
Shirak 2+ goals
37%
Shirak 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
55%
Shirak (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 81 matches

Shirak away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 1.09 + Shirak defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shirak attack 0.90 + BKMA defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BKMA scores more
41%
level
25%
Shirak scores more
33%

BKMA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BKMA 2–1 Shirak

BKMA beat Shirak 2-1 in Premier League on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Football Academy Stadium in Yerevan.