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BKMA vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
1 – 2
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
12/6/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BKMA39%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
1.95
Lokomotiv
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

BKMA
2.76
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

BKMA
1.00
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
60%
BKMA or Lokomotiv
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv
61%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
86%
BKMA 2+ goals
58%
BKMA 3+ goals
31%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
49%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 2.76 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.95

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + BKMA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BKMA scores more
39%
level
21%
Lokomotiv scores more
40%

Lokomotiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: BKMA 1–2 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat BKMA 2-1 in First League on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.