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BKMA vs Dilijan — First League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
1 – 0
Dilijan
Dilijan
3/10/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BKMA81%
×Draw11%
Dilijan8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
3.46
Dilijan
1.04

BKMA creates 233% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

BKMA
2.76
Dilijan
1.08

allows per match

BKMA
1.00
Dilijan
4.15

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Dilijan+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Dilijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
92%
BKMA or Dilijan
89%
Draw or Dilijan
19%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
64%
Dilijan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
97%
BKMA 2+ goals
85%
BKMA 3+ goals
65%
Dilijan 1+ goals
65%
Dilijan 2+ goals
28%
Dilijan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
91%
Dilijan (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Dilijan away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 2.76 + Dilijan defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.46

Dilijan attack 1.08 + BKMA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

BKMA scores more
81%
level
11%
Dilijan scores more
8%

BKMA at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BKMA 1 – 0 Dilijan

BKMA beat Dilijan 1-0 in First League on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.