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BKMA vs Ararat — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BKMA
BKMA
FT
1 – 0
Ararat
Ararat
2/14/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Football Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

BKMA52%
×Draw29%
Ararat19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
1.30
Ararat
0.67

BKMA creates 94% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

BKMA
1.60
Ararat
0.33

allows per match

BKMA
1.00
Ararat
1.00

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
81%
BKMA or Ararat
71%
Draw or Ararat
48%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
24%
Ararat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
73%
BKMA 2+ goals
37%
BKMA 3+ goals
14%
Ararat 1+ goals
49%
Ararat 2+ goals
15%
Ararat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
73%
Ararat (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Ararat away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 1.60 + Ararat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ararat attack 0.33 + BKMA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

BKMA scores more
52%
level
29%
Ararat scores more
19%

BKMA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: BKMA 1–0 Ararat

BKMA beat Ararat 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Football Academy Stadium in Yerevan.