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BKMA vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
6/20/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BKMA79%
×Draw12%
Ani Yerevan9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
3.34
Ani Yerevan
1.10

BKMA creates 204% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

creates per match

BKMA
2.76
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

BKMA
1.00
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
91%
BKMA or Ani Yerevan
88%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
21%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
61%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
96%
BKMA 2+ goals
84%
BKMA 3+ goals
63%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
67%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
30%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
90%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 2.76 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.34

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + BKMA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

BKMA scores more
79%
level
12%
Ani Yerevan scores more
9%

BKMA at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKMA vs Ani Yerevan

BKMA beat Ani Yerevan 2-0 in First League on June 20, 2020.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.