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BKMA vs Alashkert — Premier League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alashkert
Alashkert
9/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Football Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

BKMA29%
×Draw25%
Alashkert46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
1.19
Alashkert
1.57

Alashkert creates 32% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 107 away

creates per match

BKMA
1.09
Alashkert
1.44

allows per match

BKMA
1.70
Alashkert
1.28

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Alashkert+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Alashkert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
54%
BKMA or Alashkert
75%
Draw or Alashkert
71%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
12%
Alashkert wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
70%
BKMA 2+ goals
33%
BKMA 3+ goals
12%
Alashkert 1+ goals
79%
Alashkert 2+ goals
46%
Alashkert 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
39%
Alashkert (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 81 matches

Alashkert away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 1.09 + Alashkert defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alashkert attack 1.44 + BKMA defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

BKMA scores more
29%
level
25%
Alashkert scores more
46%

Alashkert at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKMA vs Alashkert

Alashkert beat BKMA 3-1 in Premier League on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Football Academy Stadium in Yerevan.