BKMA II 4–3 Lernayin Artsakh II: Result & Stats

BKMA II

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Lernayin Artsakh II

10/10/2022

First League · Round 11Football Academy 3rd pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

BKMA II75%

×Draw14%

Lernayin Artsakh II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BKMA IIExpected goals in this matchLernayin Artsakh II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.06

BKMA II

2.96

Lernayin Artsakh II

1.06

BKMA II creates 179% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 9 away

2.70

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

3.22

creates per match

BKMA II

2.70

Lernayin Artsakh II

1.00

allows per match

BKMA II

1.13

Lernayin Artsakh II

3.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BKMA II+0.00on par

Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

BKMA II or draw

89%

BKMA II or Lernayin Artsakh II

86%

Draw or Lernayin Artsakh II

25%

Winning margin

BKMA II wins by 2+

55%

Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

BKMA II 1+ goals

95%

BKMA II 2+ goals

79%

BKMA II 3+ goals

55%

Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals

65%

Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals

29%

Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

BKMA II (draw refunded)

87%

Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Lernayin Artsakh II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA II attack 2.70 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.96

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + BKMA II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

BKMA II scores more

75%

level

14%

Lernayin Artsakh II scores more

11%

BKMA II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff