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Dreams vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
4 – 1
King Faisal
King Faisal
12/29/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · 2020 - 1Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dreams60%
×Draw24%
King Faisal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.64
King Faisal
0.71

Dreams creates 131% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.62
King Faisal
0.71

allows per match

Dreams
0.71
King Faisal
1.65

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
84%
Dreams or King Faisal
76%
Draw or King Faisal
40%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
33%
King Faisal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
81%
Dreams 2+ goals
49%
Dreams 3+ goals
23%
King Faisal 1+ goals
51%
King Faisal 2+ goals
16%
King Faisal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
79%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.62 + King Faisal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.64

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Dreams defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dreams scores more
60%
level
24%
King Faisal scores more
16%

Dreams at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Premier League: Dreams 4–1 King Faisal

Dreams beat King Faisal 4-1 in Premier League on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.