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BK Hacken vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2018

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sirius
Sirius
9/29/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 25Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

BK Hacken46%
×Draw23%
Sirius31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
1.84
Sirius
1.48

BK Hacken creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
1.76
Sirius
1.26

allows per match

BK Hacken
1.69
Sirius
1.93

finishing

BK Hacken-0.56scores less
Sirius+0.74scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
69%
BK Hacken or Sirius
77%
Draw or Sirius
54%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
25%
Sirius wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
84%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
55%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
28%
Sirius 1+ goals
77%
Sirius 2+ goals
43%
Sirius 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
60%
Sirius (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 1.76 + Sirius defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sirius attack 1.26 + BK Hacken defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

BK Hacken scores more
46%
level
23%
Sirius scores more
31%

BK Hacken at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: BK Hacken 2–0 Sirius

BK Hacken beat Sirius 2-0 in Allsvenskan on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.