BK Hacken 2–2 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

IF Brommapojkarna

J. Simpson 70' (OG)

A. Svanback 47'

A. Troelsen 89'

L. Bjorklund 8'

4/6/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 1Nordic Wellness Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

BK Hacken40%

×Draw24%

IF Brommapojkarna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.50

BK Hacken

1.57

IF Brommapojkarna

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.65

creates per match

1.34

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

BK Hacken

1.65

IF Brommapojkarna

1.34

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.67

IF Brommapojkarna

1.50

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

BK Hacken+0.06on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.66scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

64%

BK Hacken or IF Brommapojkarna

76%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

60%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

19%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

79%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

46%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

21%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

78%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

44%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

52%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.67 · 7 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 1.65 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.34 + BK Hacken defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BK Hacken scores more

40%

level

24%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

36%

BK Hacken at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Helander

BK Hacken · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

L. Bjorklund↳ M. Hansen

47'

A. Svanback↳ A. Layouni

61'

G. Lindgren← S. Ngabo

67'

D. Isso← O. Berg

70'

J. SimpsonOwn goal

71'

M. Rygaard← A. Doumbia

71'

J. Agbonifo← A. Layouni

78'

Filip Helander

78'

Lukas Björklund

79'

S. Strand← K. Barslund

79'

S. Oppong← O. Okeke

86'

D. Seger← A. Svanback

89'

A. Troelsen↳ O. Zanden

90+1'

Adam Lundqvist

90+4'

S. Ngouali← L. Bjorklund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BKIF

Overview

61%Possession39%

17Total Shots7

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.50

6Corners3

13Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots7

3On Target4

8Off Target1

6Blocked2

13Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

606Total Passes379

534Accurate Passes292

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3