BK Hacken 4–1 Halmstad: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Halmstad

I. Brusberg 48'

A. Layouni 45' (pen)

S. Ngabo 19'

A. Svanback 17'

M. Persson 90'

7/13/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 15Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

BK Hacken44%

×Draw23%

Halmstad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.48

BK Hacken

1.73

Halmstad

1.48

BK Hacken creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.76

creates per match

1.27

1.69

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

BK Hacken

1.76

Halmstad

1.27

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.69

Halmstad

1.69

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

BK Hacken-0.56scores less

Halmstad-0.56scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

67%

BK Hacken or Halmstad

77%

Draw or Halmstad

56%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

23%

Halmstad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

82%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

52%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

25%

Halmstad 1+ goals

77%

Halmstad 2+ goals

43%

Halmstad 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

57%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.69 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 1.76 + Halmstad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Halmstad attack 1.27 + BK Hacken defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BK Hacken scores more

44%

level

23%

Halmstad scores more

33%

BK Hacken at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Svanback

BK Hacken · M

9.2

Match Events

17'

A. Svanback↳ A. Layouni

19'

S. Ngabo↳ I. Brusberg

45'

A. LayouniPenalty

46'

G. Eyjolfsson← N. Maenpaa

46'

M. Persson← L. Arvidsson

48'

I. Brusberg↳ A. Svanback

59'

S. Nioule← S. Ngabo

59'

P. Dahbo← A. Layouni

60'

S. Jansson← J. Lindberg

68'

Ben Engdahl

69'

L. Madsen← S. Andersen

70'

Olle Samuelsson

72'

M. Andersson← J. Allansson

77'

N. Zecevic← M. Lode

84'

Sigge Jansson

87'

B. Turgott← Y. Agnero

90'

M. Persson↳ G. Eyjolfsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BKHalmstad

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots11

2.73Expected Goals (xG)1.15

7Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target6

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

714Total Passes356

653Accurate Passes280

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1