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BK Hacken vs Falkenbergs FF — Allsvenskan 2026

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
10/3/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 23Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

BK Hacken63%
×Draw20%
Falkenbergs FF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
2.24
Falkenbergs FF
1.10

BK Hacken creates 104% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 30 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
2.20
Falkenbergs FF
0.93

allows per match

BK Hacken
1.27
Falkenbergs FF
2.27

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
82%
BK Hacken or Falkenbergs FF
80%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
37%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
40%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
89%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
65%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
38%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
67%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
30%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
78%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.27 · 127 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.20 + Falkenbergs FF defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.24

Falkenbergs FF attack 0.93 + BK Hacken defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

BK Hacken scores more
63%
level
20%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
18%

BK Hacken at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BK Hacken vs Falkenbergs FF

BK Hacken beat Falkenbergs FF 3-0 in Allsvenskan on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.