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BK Hacken vs F91 Dudelange — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
7/31/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundBravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

BK Hacken74%
×Draw15%
F91 Dudelange11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
2.84
F91 Dudelange
1.04

BK Hacken creates 173% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
3.25
F91 Dudelange
0.71

allows per match

BK Hacken
1.38
F91 Dudelange
2.43

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
89%
BK Hacken or F91 Dudelange
85%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
26%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
53%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
94%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
77%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
53%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
65%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
28%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
87%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 3.25 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.84

F91 Dudelange attack 0.71 + BK Hacken defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

BK Hacken scores more
74%
level
15%
F91 Dudelange scores more
11%

BK Hacken at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: BK Hacken 6–1 F91 Dudelange

BK Hacken beat F91 Dudelange 6-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.