BK Hacken 2–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dalkurd FF

2/21/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

BK Hacken66%

×Draw18%

Dalkurd FF16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.06

BK Hacken

2.36

Dalkurd FF

1.06

BK Hacken creates 123% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.56

0.56

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

BK Hacken

2.50

Dalkurd FF

1.56

allows per match

BK Hacken

0.56

Dalkurd FF

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

84%

BK Hacken or Dalkurd FF

82%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

34%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

43%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

90%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

68%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

41%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

65%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

29%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

81%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.50 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.36

Dalkurd FF attack 1.56 + BK Hacken defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

BK Hacken scores more

66%

level

18%

Dalkurd FF scores more

16%

BK Hacken at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff