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BK Hacken vs AEK Larnaca — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
J. Hammar 90'
F. Helander 65' (OG)
12/11/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BK Hacken66%
×Draw19%
AEK Larnaca15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
2.23
AEK Larnaca
0.97

BK Hacken creates 130% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
3.25
AEK Larnaca
0.56

allows per match

BK Hacken
1.38
AEK Larnaca
1.22

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
85%
BK Hacken or AEK Larnaca
81%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
34%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
42%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
89%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
65%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
38%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
62%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
25%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
81%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 3.25 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.23

AEK Larnaca attack 0.56 + BK Hacken defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

BK Hacken scores more
66%
level
19%
AEK Larnaca scores more
15%

BK Hacken at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. RygaardBK HackenBK Hacken · M
7.9

Match Events

30'
Riad Bajić
62'
Adam Lundqvist
62'
S. Ngabo← I. Brusberg
65'
F. HelanderOwn goal
68'
Giorgos Naoum
74'
E. Cabrera← R. Bajic
75'
Jimmy Suarez← G. Naoum
78'
J. Hammar← A. Svanback
78'
B. Wembangomo← J. Lindberg
78'
S. Leach← M. Lode
84'
A. Garcia← Miramon
90+6'
Pere Pons
90+5'
Godswill Ekpolo
90'
W. Rubio← D. Ivanovic
90+1'
V. Roberge← E. Saborit
90'
J. Hammar↳ S. Andersen

Possession

59%BK

Shots

18BK

Pass accuracy

52%BK

Statistics

BKAEK
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots8
1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.80
3Corners4
11Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots8
4On Target4
8Off Target4
6Blocked0
12Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
585Total Passes407
494Accurate Passes319
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.31Goals Prevented-0.31
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: BK Hacken vs AEK Larnaca

BK Hacken and AEK Larnaca drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 11, 2025.

Goals: F. Helander (65' o.g.), J. Hammar (90').

BK Hacken controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.