Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BK-46 vs GrIFK — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

BK-46
BK-46
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GrIFK
GrIFK
5/13/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 3Karjaan tekonurmi (Karjaa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

BK-4637%
×Draw24%
GrIFK39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK-46
1.52
GrIFK
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 71 away

creates per match

BK-46
1.27
GrIFK
1.58

allows per match

BK-46
1.55
GrIFK
1.76

finishing

BK-46+0.00on par
GrIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK-46 ↓

GrIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

BK-46 or draw
61%
BK-46 or GrIFK
76%
Draw or GrIFK
63%

Winning margin

BK-46 wins by 2+
18%
GrIFK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

BK-46 1+ goals
78%
BK-46 2+ goals
45%
BK-46 3+ goals
20%
GrIFK 1+ goals
79%
GrIFK 2+ goals
46%
GrIFK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

BK-46 (draw refunded)
49%
GrIFK (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK-46 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

GrIFK away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK-46 attack 1.27 + GrIFK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

GrIFK attack 1.58 + BK-46 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BK-46 scores more
37%
level
24%
GrIFK scores more
39%

GrIFK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GrIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BK-46 vs GrIFK

GrIFK beat BK-46 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Karjaan tekonurmi (Karjaa).