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Bjelovar vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zagorec
Zagorec
Unknown 40'
Unknown 25'
3/19/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bjelovar56%
×Draw22%
Zagorec22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
1.94
Zagorec
1.14

Bjelovar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
78%
Bjelovar or Zagorec
78%
Draw or Zagorec
44%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
33%
Zagorec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
86%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
58%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
30%
Zagorec 1+ goals
68%
Zagorec 2+ goals
32%
Zagorec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
72%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Zagorec attack 1.00 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bjelovar scores more
56%
level
22%
Zagorec scores more
22%

Bjelovar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
40'
63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Bjelovar 1–1 Zagorec

Bjelovar and Zagorec drew 1-1 in Second NL on March 19, 2023.

Goals: ? (25', 40').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.