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Bjelovar vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
D. Glavina 90+4'
J. Delibegovic 27'
T. Polic 7' (OG)
N. Omerovic 86' (pen)
9/16/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 5Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bjelovar64%
×Draw20%
NK Osijek II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
2.14
NK Osijek II
0.97

Bjelovar creates 121% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
84%
Bjelovar or NK Osijek II
80%
Draw or NK Osijek II
36%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
40%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
88%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
63%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
36%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
62%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
25%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
80%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.14

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bjelovar scores more
64%
level
20%
NK Osijek II scores more
16%

Bjelovar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
T. PolicOwn goal
27'
J. Delibegovic
65'
J. Vuica
86'
N. OmerovicPenalty
90+4'
D. Glavina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjelovar vs NK Osijek II

Bjelovar beat NK Osijek II 3-1 in Second NL on September 16, 2022.

Goals: T. Polic (7' o.g.), J. Delibegovic (27'), N. Omerovic (86' pen), D. Glavina (90+4').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.