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Bjelovar vs Mladost Ždralovi — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
3/2/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bjelovar40%
×Draw25%
Mladost Ždralovi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
1.48
Mladost Ždralovi
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Mladost Ždralovi
1.50

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Mladost Ždralovi
1.08

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
64%
Bjelovar or Mladost Ždralovi
75%
Draw or Mladost Ždralovi
60%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
19%
Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
77%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
43%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
19%
Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
75%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
40%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
53%
Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bjelovar scores more
40%
level
25%
Mladost Ždralovi scores more
36%

Bjelovar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjelovar vs Mladost Ždralovi

Bjelovar beat Mladost Ždralovi 2-0 in Second NL on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.