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Bjelovar vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
6/1/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 30Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bjelovar53%
×Draw23%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
1.84
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.15

Bjelovar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.02

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.80

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
76%
Bjelovar or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
77%
Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
47%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
30%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
84%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
55%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
28%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
68%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
32%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
69%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bjelovar scores more
53%
level
23%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
24%

Bjelovar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjelovar vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Bjelovar beat Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3-2 in Second NL on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.