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Bjelovar vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Belišće
Belišće
J. Serdarusic 75'
J. Motika 68'
F. Radovanovic 29', 28'
5/20/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bjelovar59%
×Draw21%
Belišće20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
2.14
Belišće
1.17

Bjelovar creates 83% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
80%
Bjelovar or Belišće
79%
Draw or Belišće
41%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
36%
Belišće wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
88%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
63%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
36%
Belišće 1+ goals
69%
Belišće 2+ goals
33%
Belišće 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
75%
Belišće (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.14

Belišće attack 1.07 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bjelovar scores more
59%
level
21%
Belišće scores more
20%

Bjelovar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
F. Radovanovic
29'
F. Radovanovic
68'
J. Motika
75'
J. Serdarusic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Bjelovar 2–2 Belišće

Bjelovar and Belišće drew 2-2 in Second NL on May 20, 2023.

Goals: F. Radovanovic (28', 29'), J. Motika (68'), J. Serdarusic (75').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.