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Bjørkelangen vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Bjørkelangen
Bjørkelangen
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
HamKam II
HamKam II
6/1/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 8Bjørkelangen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bjørkelangen48%
×Draw20%
HamKam II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjørkelangen
2.27
HamKam II
1.81

Bjørkelangen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bjørkelangen
1.85
HamKam II
1.54

allows per match

Bjørkelangen
2.08
HamKam II
2.69

finishing

Bjørkelangen+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjørkelangen ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Bjørkelangen or draw
69%
Bjørkelangen or HamKam II
80%
Draw or HamKam II
52%

Winning margin

Bjørkelangen wins by 2+
29%
HamKam II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bjørkelangen 1+ goals
90%
Bjørkelangen 2+ goals
66%
Bjørkelangen 3+ goals
39%
HamKam II 1+ goals
84%
HamKam II 2+ goals
54%
HamKam II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)
61%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjørkelangen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjørkelangen attack 1.85 + HamKam II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.27

HamKam II attack 1.54 + Bjørkelangen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bjørkelangen scores more
48%
level
20%
HamKam II scores more
31%

Bjørkelangen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bjørkelangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Bjørkelangen 4–3 HamKam II

Bjørkelangen beat HamKam II 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Bjørkelangen kunstgress in Bjørkelangen.