Bjørkelangen 3–1 Hødd II: Result & Stats

Bjørkelangen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hødd II

J. Kolstad 90'

O. Vestreng 43'

E. Olsen 15'

I. Johansen 11'

5/11/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 6Bjørkelangen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bjørkelangen69%

×Draw17%

Hødd II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BjørkelangenExpected goals in this matchHødd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.07

Bjørkelangen

2.54

Hødd II

1.07

Bjørkelangen creates 137% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.15

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Bjørkelangen

2.00

Hødd II

1.00

allows per match

Bjørkelangen

1.15

Hødd II

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bjørkelangen+0.00on par

Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjørkelangen ↓

Hødd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bjørkelangen or draw

86%

Bjørkelangen or Hødd II

83%

Draw or Hødd II

31%

Winning margin

Bjørkelangen wins by 2+

47%

Hødd II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bjørkelangen 1+ goals

92%

Bjørkelangen 2+ goals

72%

Bjørkelangen 3+ goals

46%

Hødd II 1+ goals

66%

Hødd II 2+ goals

29%

Hødd II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)

83%

Hødd II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjørkelangen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjørkelangen attack 2.00 + Hødd II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.54

Hødd II attack 1.00 + Bjørkelangen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bjørkelangen scores more

69%

level

17%

Hødd II scores more

14%

Bjørkelangen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bjørkelangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

I. Johansen

15'

E. Olsen

43'

O. Vestreng

90'

J. Kolstad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff