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Bjørkelangen vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Bjørkelangen
Bjørkelangen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
E. Olsen 1'
L. Haldorsen 32'
8/23/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 18Bjørkelangen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bjørkelangen66%
×Draw18%
Gjelleråsen15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjørkelangen
2.34
Gjelleråsen
1.03

Bjørkelangen creates 127% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bjørkelangen
2.00
Gjelleråsen
0.92

allows per match

Bjørkelangen
1.15
Gjelleråsen
2.69

finishing

Bjørkelangen+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjørkelangen ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bjørkelangen or draw
85%
Bjørkelangen or Gjelleråsen
82%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
34%

Winning margin

Bjørkelangen wins by 2+
43%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bjørkelangen 1+ goals
90%
Bjørkelangen 2+ goals
67%
Bjørkelangen 3+ goals
41%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
64%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
28%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)
81%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjørkelangen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjørkelangen attack 2.00 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Gjelleråsen attack 0.92 + Bjørkelangen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bjørkelangen scores more
66%
level
18%
Gjelleråsen scores more
15%

Bjørkelangen at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bjørkelangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
E. Olsen
32'
L. Haldorsen
55'
O. Vestreng
55'
O. Vestreng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjørkelangen vs Gjelleråsen

Bjørkelangen and Gjelleråsen drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 23, 2024.

Goals: E. Olsen (1'), L. Haldorsen (32').

The match was played at Bjørkelangen kunstgress in Bjørkelangen.