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Bjørkelangen vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Bjørkelangen
Bjørkelangen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
O. Vestreng 90', 26', 17'
9/7/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 20Bjørkelangen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bjørkelangen63%
×Draw19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjørkelangen
2.31
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.15

Bjørkelangen creates 101% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bjørkelangen
2.00
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.15

allows per match

Bjørkelangen
1.15
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.62

finishing

Bjørkelangen+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjørkelangen ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bjørkelangen or draw
82%
Bjørkelangen or Funnefoss / Vormsund
81%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
37%

Winning margin

Bjørkelangen wins by 2+
41%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bjørkelangen 1+ goals
90%
Bjørkelangen 2+ goals
67%
Bjørkelangen 3+ goals
40%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
68%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
32%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)
78%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjørkelangen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjørkelangen attack 2.00 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.31

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.15 + Bjørkelangen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bjørkelangen scores more
63%
level
19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
18%

Bjørkelangen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bjørkelangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
O. Vestreng
26'
O. Vestreng
86'
T. Holmestad
90'
O. Vestreng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Bjørkelangen 3–0 Funnefoss / Vormsund

Bjørkelangen beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 7, 2024.

Goals: O. Vestreng (17', 26', 90').

The match was played at Bjørkelangen kunstgress in Bjørkelangen.