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Bizau vs Brederis — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Bizau
Bizau
FT
5 – 2
Brederis
Brederis
9/16/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 10Bergstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bizau70%
×Draw14%
Brederis15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bizau
3.43
Brederis
1.62

Bizau creates 112% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bizau
2.45
Brederis
1.27

allows per match

Bizau
1.97
Brederis
4.40

finishing

Bizau+0.00on par
Brederis+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bizau ↓

Brederis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Bizau or draw
85%
Bizau or Brederis
86%
Draw or Brederis
30%

Winning margin

Bizau wins by 2+
52%
Brederis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bizau 1+ goals
97%
Bizau 2+ goals
85%
Bizau 3+ goals
64%
Brederis 1+ goals
80%
Brederis 2+ goals
48%
Brederis 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bizau (draw refunded)
82%
Brederis (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bizau at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

Brederis away — creates 1.27, concedes 4.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bizau attack 2.45 + Brederis defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.43

Brederis attack 1.27 + Bizau defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bizau scores more
70%
level
14%
Brederis scores more
15%

Bizau at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bizau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bizau vs Brederis

Bizau beat Brederis 5-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 16, 2022.

The match was played at Bergstadion in Bizau.