Bitburg 2–4 Kaiserslautern II: Result & Stats

Bitburg

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Kaiserslautern II

10/29/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Stadion-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bitburg21%

×Draw18%

Kaiserslautern II61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BitburgExpected goals in this matchKaiserslautern II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.63

Bitburg

1.49

Kaiserslautern II

2.63

Kaiserslautern II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

1.37

creates per match

2.51

2.74

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Bitburg

1.37

Kaiserslautern II

2.51

allows per match

Bitburg

2.74

Kaiserslautern II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bitburg+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bitburg ↓

Kaiserslautern II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Bitburg or draw

39%

Bitburg or Kaiserslautern II

82%

Draw or Kaiserslautern II

79%

Winning margin

Bitburg wins by 2+

9%

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Bitburg 1+ goals

77%

Bitburg 2+ goals

44%

Bitburg 3+ goals

19%

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals

93%

Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals

73%

Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Bitburg (draw refunded)

25%

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bitburg at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bitburg attack 1.37 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + Bitburg defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bitburg scores more

21%

level

18%

Kaiserslautern II scores more

61%

Kaiserslautern II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff