Bitam 1–1 Stade Migoveen: Result & Stats

Bitam

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stade Migoveen

5/30/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 18Stade Gaston Peyrille

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bitam41%

×Draw28%

Stade Migoveen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BitamExpected goals in this matchStade Migoveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.02

Bitam

1.24

Stade Migoveen

1.02

Bitam creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

0.77

1.27

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Bitam

1.17

Stade Migoveen

0.77

allows per match

Bitam

1.27

Stade Migoveen

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bitam+0.00on par

Stade Migoveen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bitam ↓

Stade Migoveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bitam or draw

70%

Bitam or Stade Migoveen

72%

Draw or Stade Migoveen

59%

Winning margin

Bitam wins by 2+

18%

Stade Migoveen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bitam 1+ goals

71%

Bitam 2+ goals

35%

Bitam 3+ goals

13%

Stade Migoveen 1+ goals

64%

Stade Migoveen 2+ goals

27%

Stade Migoveen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bitam (draw refunded)

58%

Stade Migoveen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bitam at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Stade Migoveen away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bitam attack 1.17 + Stade Migoveen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stade Migoveen attack 0.77 + Bitam defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bitam scores more

41%

level

28%

Stade Migoveen scores more

30%

Bitam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bitam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff