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Bitam vs Ogooue FC — Championnat D1 2022

Bitam
Bitam
FT
0 – 3
Ogooue FC
Ogooue FC
5/9/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 13Stade Gaston Peyrille

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bitam36%
×Draw30%
Ogooue FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bitam
1.08
Ogooue FC
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bitam
1.17
Ogooue FC
0.85

allows per match

Bitam
1.27
Ogooue FC
1.00

finishing

Bitam+0.00on par
Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bitam ↓

Ogooue FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bitam or draw
65%
Bitam or Ogooue FC
70%
Draw or Ogooue FC
64%

Winning margin

Bitam wins by 2+
14%
Ogooue FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bitam 1+ goals
66%
Bitam 2+ goals
29%
Bitam 3+ goals
10%
Ogooue FC 1+ goals
65%
Ogooue FC 2+ goals
29%
Ogooue FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bitam (draw refunded)
51%
Ogooue FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bitam at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Ogooue FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bitam attack 1.17 + Ogooue FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ogooue FC attack 0.85 + Bitam defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bitam scores more
36%
level
30%
Ogooue FC scores more
35%

Bitam at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bitam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bitam vs Ogooue FC

Ogooue FC beat Bitam 3-0 in Championnat D1 on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Peyrille in Bitam.