Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bitam vs FC 105 — Championnat D1 2022

Bitam
Bitam
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC 105
FC 105
2/15/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 8Stade Gaston Peyrille

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bitam31%
×Draw29%
FC 10540%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bitam
1.02
FC 105
1.21

FC 105 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

creates per match

Bitam
1.17
FC 105
1.16

allows per match

Bitam
1.27
FC 105
0.88

finishing

Bitam+0.00on par
FC 105+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bitam ↓

FC 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bitam or draw
60%
Bitam or FC 105
71%
Draw or FC 105
69%

Winning margin

Bitam wins by 2+
12%
FC 105 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bitam 1+ goals
64%
Bitam 2+ goals
27%
Bitam 3+ goals
8%
FC 105 1+ goals
70%
FC 105 2+ goals
34%
FC 105 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bitam (draw refunded)
43%
FC 105 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bitam at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

FC 105 away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bitam attack 1.17 + FC 105 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

FC 105 attack 1.16 + Bitam defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bitam scores more
31%
level
29%
FC 105 scores more
40%

FC 105 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Bitam 1–1 FC 105

Bitam and FC 105 drew 1-1 in Championnat D1 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Peyrille in Bitam.